Climate change Impacts

According to the 2007 IPCC report, although Indonesia is likely to experience warming, the warming is likely to be smaller than that of the global annual mean warming. Annual rainfall is also likely to increase. Climate change models or  AOGCMs are not able to see small islands because of problems with resolution, so the projections are based upon ocean as apposed to land. With that in mind there is a level of uncertainty because the ocean- atmosphere interaction in the Indian ocean is not well understood. Monsoonal rains are expected to decrease with global warming. It will also make these monsoons less predictable because it will not be such a seasonal occurrence. ( http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-4-1.html)

Fresh water availability is projected to decrease due to increasing populations with a demand for higher living standards in addition to climate change. Therefore negatively impacting sustainable development. Despite all of this, they have a greater sea flooding risk. The risk of diarrhoeal diseases and will go up due to the lack of water and flooding of sea water. Crops will also decrease, due to the drought. (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c-8-asia.html)

Due to increased temperatures and extreme weather events, crop yield will decline. With that, climate induced diseases and heat stress are also more likely to occur. There is a great chance due to sea level rise that coastal ecosystems will experience significant loses. Due to sea water run off, fresh water fisheries will be negatively effected. Wet lands, mangroves and coral reefs are seriously threatened. Due to increasing population, it is likely that deforestation will continue, which threatens biodiversity of Indonesia which already deforests quite heavily. (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-es.html)

Deforestation  in Indonesia
(http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/forests/14-reasons-we-need-
save-indonesia-deforestation-20131023)

One of the most interesting things about the impact that global warming has on Indonesia is that it expresses that it is not only a problem for the animals and the earth itself, it directly effects humans. Due to a lack of fresh water, and water contamination diseases increase along and as a result there is an increase in 
endemic morbidity and mortality rates. Due to a lack of resources climate change will also greatly impact sustainable development, and when combined with a growing population that is moving toward larger cities this could be devastating. So many of the problem that are occuring are connected in some way, however humans generally do not see a direct connection to them. This look on it is eye opening as to how connected humans really are to the problems that climate change can cause. 

Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change

With global climate change, Indonesia suspects that they will experience extreme dry weather followed by heavy rainfall causing flooding and landslides. 
In regards to the extreme dry weather, areas that are densely populated are predicted to have water scarcity problems. One of the more prevalent ideas to combat this is inter basin water transfer, which is the transfer of water from a river basin to another where it would be of greater potential help. This solution would work because despite the shortage of water some water basins still have a surplus of water but due to its location it is not being used properly. With this method improved storage methods would be taken on. 

Although everybody knows that climate change is a negative thing for the humans, people do not always realize that global climate change can be bad for your health. Indonesia has many adaption strategies in order to keep health in tact while climate change occurs. (http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?rec=j&priref=7376#beg)

In the IPCC's adaptation section for Asia, livestock and agricultural are the most prevalent of the adaptations. It was interesting that many of the adaptions weren't about the reduction of anything, but rather put on the animals and plants themselves to gain tolerance to the new conditions through breeding and the use of different species. Little to no conservation is taking place with these plans aside from improved use and storage of rain and snow water. (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-5.html)

Status of Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol
Indonesia has ratified the protocol, however surprisingly they were never required to lower their carbon emissions despite their deforestation.  (http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php)

Indonesia is home to the third largest rain forest in the world, however do to deforestation for the use of wood and palm oil plantations, Greenpeace estimates that 4,790 square miles of forest have already been cut down. Not only does this endanger species that live there, but deforestation contributes to carbon emissions. Although President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has a plan to cut down emissions by 26 percent by 2020, the continuous growth in palm oil plantations brings much doubt to the matter. There are currently no economic incentives for a decline in this activity, but there is in favor of deforestation. 

Due to the fact that Indonesia is directly causing significant carbon emissions which leads to carbon change, I believe that Indonesia should try and mitigate. Global climate change should be something taken very seriously in Indonesia due to all of the small islands that its population is spread across and the danger that a rise in sea level would bring to them. 

Indonesia's Contribution to Climate Change

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Compared to the above countries, Indonesia ranks low on CO2 emissions and has been experiencing a small amount of growth, compared to other countries. It becomes very evident that China has the largest carbon dioxide emissions with the US in second. However when looking at per capita carbon emissions the US is ranked number 12 while China is ranked 63. With that in mind, and while also thinking about China's industry and an average persons accessibility to keeping out CO2, I believe that a US citizen is more responsible for emitting CO2.

Total Fossil Fuel emissions in thousands of metric tons of carbon.

US:96955492

China:36152087

Kenya:86840

India:10260070

Italy:5646316

Indonesia:2402266

When looking at the numbers cumulatively it is easy to see that the US is responsible for more metric tons of carbon than any other country. China lets off 37.28% of the US's total emissions despite the fact that China currently lets off more CO2. India only lets off 10.58% of the US. Compared to the US, Indonesia only gives off 2.48% of the amount that the US gives off. This all helps to prove that the US is such a great contributor to CO2 emissions, when we as a society are constantly reassured that this doesn't matter. 

Globally, the trends are all the same when it comes to CO2 emissions, they all contain an increase in CO2.

Carbon Dioxide Concentration

The CO2 emissions from Indonesia are mostly caused by solid and then liquid fuels. Liquid fuel emissions have fluctuated throughout the years, but have increased dramatically around 1967. Until just before 2010, liquid emissions have been the greatest contributor even with this fluctuation. However solid fuel emissions surpassed liquid emissions due to the exponential growth of solid fuel emissions.This expansion of solid fuel is most likely due to Indonesias increase in coal power plants, as they start to develop and rely more heavily on coal.
 Per capita CO2 emissions:
In 2008, CO2 emissions per capita were at 0.49 thousand of metric tons per capita. When compared to the US that has 4.7 metric tons per thousand, it is 10.42% of the US's CO2 emissions per capita. This is most likely due to the fact that only recently has the Indonesian population experienced a growth in the amount of cars. Compared to other countries, Indonesia ranks 132 with its CO2 emissions per capita out of 216. The US ranks at number 12. Overall, I think that Indonesia per capita emissions are within a decent range for a developed country. However with their recent expansion of car owners, this rank may go up in the near future.